While I was down with a severe case of flu, the editor of the fox2magazine.net (one of the few military related Greek websites I find it worth reading) send me a very interesting article from Russian origin.
Apparently the Russians played a war game with the scenario of a armed conflict between Russia and Turkey. And we won.
A war game for a aeronafmachia Black Sea by Russian specialists: The conflict leads to the calibration points and the corresponding score.The result hopeless for the Russian side – Turkey triumphs.
Currently, in the Black Sea only Turkey has a fleet capable of dealing effectively with Russia.Analysts, taking into account the conclusions of the military-political situation of such a conflict, worked two scenarios: A possible confrontation with the Turkish side only as enemies, a second with NATO as a whole.
The possibility of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey, without the participation of NATO – real. This escalation in military conflict can occur through one of the hot spots in the Caucasus and the Middle East. Already, Moscow and Ankara have major differences in the approach on how to solve the Syrian crisis. The interests of the Russians in Cyprus meet the Turkish position to solve the problem. Russia and Turkey have different views on the issue Karabakh. The involvement of NATO in these conflicts is not obvious, the analysis concludes.
Synthesis of the two forces
Therefore, the opponent of the Russian Black Sea Fleet may be only the Turkish Navy, which has 15 submarines, 19 frigates, 25 missile boats and 20 minesweepers. These forces are likely to be supported by regular air forces. Of the approximately 440 aircraft of the Turkish Air Force that could impact undertake missions against ships and establishments of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, can be used in 100 or maybe more of these aircraft.
O Operational Strategic formation of the Black Sea Fleet in early 2013, according to open sources, including two submarines and 41 surface ships. However, 20% to 50% of ships in need of repair.
The Naval Air consists of 34 aircraft and 40 helicopters of various applications.Specifically, it has 18 attack aircraft Su-24M (actually – bombers) Su-24M, four to seven seaplanes submarine role Be-12, an aircraft An-12PP EW recognition and four Su-24 MR.The helicopter fleet consists of 30 ASW Ka-27PL and eight helicopters based EW project Mi-8. All aeromesa of Naval Aviation is not functional.
Within the submarine forces, the Black Sea Fleet has only two submarines – one class and one class 877 641B. On surface vessels including a heavy cruiser, a large anti-submarine ship, three frigates, four small pyraflofora ships, seven small anti-submarine ships race, 11 minesweepers, seven large amphibious ships, six missile boats.
The aviation arm of the Black Sea Fleet may be lined up to race for 12 Su-24, three seaplanes Be-12 and two Su-24MR recognition, 18 Ka-27PL and five helicopters EW.
In the end the Russian realized that in its current state the Russian Black Sea Fleet was not up to the task of protectingthe Russian interests against. Turkey.
This is the result at the end of the first week of combat operations. Russian losses can thus reach a critical value for the continuation of hostilities, while the Turkish Navy will retain the ability to fight. The primacy, even in the coastal zone of Russia under loss.
The war game continues the analysis of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey, considering the likelihood of an alleged involvement of NATO naval units that are likely to enter the Black Sea: Three groups fighting in the composition having three categories of ships, supported by two aircraft carrier battle groups from the Eastern Mediterranean. The Black Sea Fleet will not be able to cause any serious damage to the enemy, while he suffered many losses will rapidly lose its significance as a functional entity.
The war game that shows the current composition of the Black Sea Fleet is unable to solve the problem of protecting the interests of Russia in relation to the response of a military confrontation in the south, the report concludes.
I am not surprised by the findings of the Russians. The Turkish Navy has a clear numerical superiority over the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The condition of the Turkish warships are also better than the Russian ships.
Yes “quantity has a quality all its own”, but all historical and military scholars know that a numerical superiority does not always guaranties a certain victory. The education of the crew of the ships their morale, the counts too. And personally I am not sure about this aspect of the Turkish Navy.
Last week the Commander of Turkish Navy Admiral Nusret Güney resigned. He was expected to be the next Commander of Turkish Naval Forces in Augusts 2013 and he was the only remaining officer in this rank. The recent wave of political motivated trials such as notorious Sledgehammer case or the recent spy ring case did not only put the traditional and carefully planned promotion scheme, build on hard work and loyalty in disarray, they have also created diversion and distraction.
The traditional promotion scheme of Turkish Navy has the purpose like in all other armed forces to prepare officers for their next assignments and make sure that only deserving officers are allocated to their billets. For next couple of years many officers will be forced to take commands for which they are not fully prepared or not equipped. The damage of these interventions into the Turkish Navy will haunt us for a long time in the future. The Russians should remember the effects of such purges have on armed services.