The Turkish Navy Superior To The Russian Black Sea Fleet?

While I was down with a severe case of  flu, the editor of the fox2magazine.net  (one of the few military related Greek websites I find it worth reading) send me a very interesting article from Russian origin.

Apparently the Russians played a war game with the scenario of a armed conflict between Russia and Turkey. And we won.

A war game for a aeronafmachia Black Sea by Russian specialists: The conflict leads to the calibration points and the corresponding score.The result hopeless for the Russian side – Turkey triumphs.

Currently, in the Black Sea only Turkey has a fleet capable of dealing effectively with Russia.Analysts, taking into account the conclusions of the military-political situation of such a conflict, worked two scenarios: A possible confrontation with the Turkish side only as enemies, a second with NATO as a whole.

The possibility of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey, without the participation of NATO – real. This escalation in military conflict can occur through one of the hot spots in the Caucasus and the Middle East. Already, Moscow and Ankara have major differences in the approach on how to solve the Syrian crisis. The interests of the Russians in Cyprus meet the Turkish position to solve the problem. Russia and Turkey have different views on the issue Karabakh. The involvement of NATO in these conflicts is not obvious, the analysis concludes.

Synthesis of the two forces 

Therefore, the opponent of the Russian Black Sea Fleet may be only the Turkish Navy, which has 15 submarines, 19 frigates, 25 missile boats and 20 minesweepers. These forces are likely to be supported by regular air forces. Of the approximately 440 aircraft of the Turkish Air Force that could impact undertake missions against ships and establishments of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, can be used in 100 or maybe more of these aircraft.

O Operational Strategic formation of the Black Sea Fleet in early 2013, according to open sources, including two submarines and 41 surface ships. However, 20% to 50% of ships in need of repair.

The Naval Air consists of 34 aircraft and 40 helicopters of various applications.Specifically, it has 18 attack aircraft Su-24M (actually – bombers) Su-24M, four to seven seaplanes submarine role Be-12, an aircraft An-12PP EW recognition and four Su-24 MR.The helicopter fleet consists of 30 ASW Ka-27PL and eight helicopters based EW project Mi-8. All aeromesa of Naval Aviation is not functional.

Within the submarine forces, the Black Sea Fleet has only two submarines – one class and one class 877 641B. On surface vessels including a heavy cruiser, a large anti-submarine ship, three frigates, four small pyraflofora ships, seven small anti-submarine ships race, 11 minesweepers, seven large amphibious ships, six missile boats.

The aviation arm of the Black Sea Fleet may be lined up to race for 12 Su-24, three seaplanes Be-12 and two Su-24MR recognition, 18 Ka-27PL and five helicopters EW.

In the end the Russian realized that in its current state the Russian Black Sea Fleet was not up to the task of protectingthe Russian interests against. Turkey.

This is the result at the end of the first week of combat operations. Russian losses can thus reach a critical value for the continuation of hostilities, while the Turkish Navy will retain the ability to fight. The primacy, even in the coastal zone of Russia under loss.

The war game continues the analysis of a military conflict between Russia and Turkey, considering the likelihood of an alleged involvement of NATO naval units that are likely to enter the Black Sea: Three groups fighting in the composition having three categories of ships, supported by two aircraft carrier battle groups from the Eastern Mediterranean. The Black Sea Fleet will not be able to cause any serious damage to the enemy, while he suffered many losses will rapidly lose its significance as a functional entity.

The war game that shows the current composition of the Black Sea Fleet is unable to solve the problem of protecting the interests of Russia in relation to the response of a military confrontation in the south, the report concludes.

I am not surprised by the findings of the Russians. The Turkish Navy has a clear numerical superiority over the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The condition of the Turkish warships are also better than the Russian ships.

Yes “quantity has a quality all its own”, but all historical and military scholars know that a numerical superiority does not always guaranties a certain victory. The education of the crew of the ships their morale, the counts too. And personally I am not sure about this aspect of the Turkish Navy.

Last week the Commander of Turkish Navy Admiral Nusret Güney resigned. He was expected to be the next Commander of Turkish Naval Forces in Augusts 2013 and he was the only remaining officer in this rank. The recent wave of political motivated trials such as notorious Sledgehammer case or the recent spy ring case did not only put the traditional and carefully planned promotion scheme, build on hard work and loyalty in disarray, they have also created diversion and distraction.

The traditional promotion scheme of Turkish Navy has the purpose like in all other armed forces to prepare officers for their next assignments and make sure that only deserving officers are allocated to their billets. For next couple of years many officers will be forced to take commands for which they are not fully prepared or not equipped. The damage of these interventions into the Turkish Navy will haunt us for a long time in the future. The Russians should remember the effects of such purges have on armed services.

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8 Responses to The Turkish Navy Superior To The Russian Black Sea Fleet?

  1. Dave Shirlaw says:

    Hope you are feeling better. Flu is no fun.

  2. petros says:

    why on the equasion of black sea russian vs turkish they numbered all the ships of turkish navy wile on the russian side they counter only the black sea airforce available? did enyone beleive if things escalade russian would not bring some 100-200 fighters including the new Su-34 strike fighters and modernised versions of Sukhoi 27/30/35. russia also has high supersonic anti-ship missiles that turkish CIWS systems cannot stop as it was desighned to stop subsonic or just supersonic anti-ship missiles. also russia can hit the turkish navy ports with tactic ballistic missiles with conventional warheads cripling the ability to operate in flowless with fuel nd other suplies

    • You should ask your question to the Russians. They did this wargame.

      • petros says:

        on the wargame model, it give you the results of the input information, if they put only whats currently on the black sea, then this senario its realistic in one case, nato vs russia so all forces were engaged and russia reinforcement would be innadequate, but this would mean WWIII and as outcome the use of nuclear weapon used, so we all screwed up! in the turkey vs russia senario only, its not possible a russian-turkish war with a turkish attack, turkey its not strong enough to challenge russia alone even with russias problems. russia has alot of other weapons to use like TBM, cruise etc in order to cup with the inferior black sea fleet.

  3. james says:

    Nikolay Filchenkov Large Landing Ship
    152
    Orsk Large Landing Ship
    148
    Saratov Large Landing Ship
    150
    Azov Large Landing Ship
    151
    Novocherkassk Large Landing Ship
    142
    Tsezar Kunikov Large Landing Ship
    158
    Yamal Large Landing Ship

  4. james says:

    The drills in the Black Sea coincided with a huge long-range aviation exercise by the Russian Air Force. A range of strategic bombers – such as the supersonic Tu-160, Tu-95MC, Tu-22M3, Ilyushin flying tankers, A-50 AWACS aircrafts, Su-27 fighter jets and supersonic MiG-31 interceptors – conducted over 60 missions at three ranges in various regions of the country. on the air russia is superior,, in seconds turkish perry frigates will be polarized in every way

  5. james says:

    Construction of the Novorossiisk submarine started at Admiralty Shipyards in August 2010, followed by the Rostov-on-Don sub in November 2011 and the Stary Oskol in August 2012.

    The Varshavyanka-class (Project 636) is an improved version of the Kilo-class submarines and features advanced stealth technology, extended combat range and the ability to strike land, surface and underwater targets.

    These submarines are mainly intended for anti-shipping and anti-submarine missions in relatively shallow waters.

    The vessels, crewed by 52 submariners, have an underwater speed of 20 knots, a cruising range of 400 miles (electric propulsion) with the ability to patrol for 45 days. They are armed with 18 torpedoes and eight surface-to-air missiles.

  6. Michaelo says:

    I wonder whether Turkish Navy may somehow block actions of the Russian Black Sea Fleet againt Ukraine during the current crisis.

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